Sunday, September 8, 2019

Being Smart with $$ - Stocks Go Up Because Companies Make Money



Are you tempted to bet against stocks? It’s a little like betting you can win in a casino. You might win in the short term but will likely lose in the end.  A diversified portfolio of stocks provides a return from annual dividend payments or rising share prices because companies make money every year.  Yes, it is true stocks don’t go up every year even though companies are generating profits.  But how long do you want to bet against this annual creation of new value?  Many smart investors have tried to time the market and predict a crash and many of those found themselves sent to the loser’s table.  Similarly, casino operators know that when millions of dollars change hands at the tables, some gamblers will win but the house will ultimately collect a percentage of the total because the odds are in their favor.  Some people will be lucky in casinos and some will be lucky making short-term bets against stocks.  But most will experience what the odds predict: they will lose the bet.  This year alone, many financial advisers have gambled with their clients’ money and reduced stock allocations only to watch the U.S. market rise over 18% since New Year’s. They bet wrong and might need the market to fall quite a bit now just to get back in at the same price where they sold.   (Note that stock investments are appropriate for those with a long-term time horizon and the money allocated to stocks should be for your needs in the distant years ahead.  Investments earmarked for near-term needs should be invested in less volatile assets.)

Larry Pike, CFA

Client Priority Financial Advisors LLC
Hourly financial advice.  No commissions,  No automatic, recurring adviser fees.
www.clientpriority.com
Blog: clientpriority.blogspot.com

Thursday, August 22, 2019

Being Smart With $$ - Financial Advisers Act Emotionally and Shouldn't


Financial advisers buy and sell at the wrong time based on emotion says legendary billionaire investor Ron Baron and he takes advantage of this and increases his purchases when they are panicking.  Don’t let your financial adviser manage your portfolio with emotion rather than rationality.  A proper long-term investment plan does not include panic selling. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/20/ron-baron-says-he-tripled-normal-stock-buys-during-recent-wild-swings.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail

Larry Pike, CFA

Client Priority Financial Advisors LLC

Monday, August 19, 2019



Timing was the subject of an old Steve Martin joke where he said it is the basis of success in comedy.  Of course, in his bit he said the word all wrong with the accent on the second syllable as if it referred to an ancient Chinese dynasty.  If you get timing wrong in comedy, the joke doesn’t work.  If you get timing wrong in your portfolio, you lose money.  The best timing with investing involves not timing the market at all and staying invested in a proper allocation for your needs.  Most investors will find that their total time in the market is what matters in the long run and not when to dart in and out of it.  Some investors believe they can jump out of the stock market before a crash and avoid losses.  The problem here is that expected crashes often don’t come and then you are sitting out the market as it marches higher.  Then it is hard to get back in when you intended to avoid losses but instead lost money by sitting it out.  And if you do dump stocks and the market subsequently falls, the next hurdle is to figure out when to get back in.  Investors often make the mistake of expecting further declines and then miss all the upside.  The long-term trend for stocks is always higher as prices will reflect all the profits generated by global companies every year even though there will be corrections now and then.  Many have been predicting a crash for years and they have been punished by missing a 3-year return in large-cap stocks of over 13% annually!  In comedy, you have to get your timing right and in investing the best timing strategy is not to time the market at all.

Larry Pike, CFA
Client Priority Financial Advisors LLC
www.clientpriority.com

Tuesday, July 16, 2019

Being Smart with $$ -- Vape or Have $1 Million. You Choose.



Vaping or $1 MILLION.  You choose.  Maybe your kids will ignore your health warnings and sneak off to vape behind the school when no one is looking.  But what if they knew the true long-term financial cost?  An average user may go through a pod per day at $4 each.  So let your kids know that if they throw that $4 per day into the stock market, instead of vaping, from their senior year of high school through all their working years, it will likely be worth almost $1 MILLION which they can spend in retirement.   Lighter users might be looking at less but still substantial money. Vaping or $1 million.  It seems like an easy choice. (Assumes 8.5% annual stock-market returns which are below long-term averages, over 50 years.  Past results may not be a predicter of future results.)

Larry Pike, CFA
Client Priority Financial Advisors LLC
www.clientpriority.com
Blog:
clientpriority.blogspot.com

Sunday, July 14, 2019

Being Smart With $$ - Don't Let Your Get Adviser Get Cute with Your Money


Does your financial adviser time the market? Many do believing they can avoid losses when the market is falling or grab profits right before the market will rise. The problem is that so much research shows that market timing fails more than it wins. A new client of mine showed me their portfolio before they moved from another adviser and I asked why their stock allocation was so low compared to an appropriate position for someone with their profile. The answer was that their soon-to-be former adviser was predicting a market decline. Well guess what? The market is now at all-time highs and substantially higher than when that adviser sold all their clients’ stocks and that decision has cost the clients a fortune. Can the market crash in the weeks or months ahead? It’s always possible. But what if it doesn’t? Over the long term, the market marches higher as companies keep generating new profits.  The adviser is hoping to pick up a few percentage points in the short term but instead may potentially be costing their clients a quadrupling of their stock values over the next couple of decades if they keep waiting for a crash that never comes. Don’t let your adviser get cute with your portfolio. A steady and consistent long-term plan is the path to success.
Larry Pike, CFA
Client Priority Financial Advisors LLC

Friday, June 28, 2019

Being Smart with $$ -- Unnecessary Investment Fees Can Cost You a Fortune



Three quarters of a million dollars!  That’s about how much you might lose on a million-dollar starting portfolio over 15 years if your fees are around a mere 2%.  More correctly stated, that’s about how much less you’ll earn, all else equal, if you earn 5% investment returns annually (after 2.2% in fees) instead of 7.2% without unnecessary fees.  2.2% may not seem like much until you realize it may cost you three quarters of a million dollars.  Keep your investment fees low!  They matter more than you think.  Investors hate to lose money.  But what about losing the money you should have earned?  Don’t let an investment salesperson dazzle you with tales of big performance in exchange for a few percent in annual fees.  They are usually false promises that line the salesperson’s pocket at your expense.  Did I mention it may cost you three quarters of a million dollars? 

Larry Pike, CFA
Client Priority Financial Advisors LLC
www.clientpriority.com 

Monday, June 3, 2019

Being Smart with $$ -- Best Laid Plans



Best Laid Plans.  So often I hear from clients that a big part of their retirement plan is to work forever, or at least until 70.  Maybe they should have a Plan B.  A recent survey showed 8 out of 10 believe they’ll work in retirement but in reality, less than 3 in 10 do.  It’s usually due to a health or disability issue or an unexpected job loss.  Perhaps the advice of hoping for the best but planning for the worst is a good approach here.  If not working until 70 means cat food in retirement, best to make adjustments today to be safe.  (Source: Retirement Confidence Survey by Employee Benefit Research Institute 4/23/19.)

Larry Pike, CFA
Client Priority Financial Advisors LLC
www.clientpriority.com